In an April 13 analyst note, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, estimated that after the halving, bitcoin miners would sell $5 billion in BTC.

As it has done after previous halvings, he added in a statement, "The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months."

According to Thielen, this might occur once more, with the cryptocurrency markets encountering "a significant challenge in a six-month'summer' lull."

The price of bitcoin for the five months that followed the 2020 halving stayed within a narrow band, between $9,000 to $11,500.

If past trends hold true, the halving this year will occur about on April 20, which is just six days away. As a result, if markets rise sharply, it could not happen until approximately October.

In addition, he said that miners' preference to hoard Bitcoin will "cause a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in Bitcoin prices" before the halving.

This is already the case; on March 14, 2024, the value of Bitcoin reached a record high of $73,734, gaining 74%, before plunging below $63,000 in mid-April.

Additionally, Thielen drew attention to the disproportionate effect on cryptocurrencies, which have drastically decreased in value from their 2021 peak. Though there have been rumors of a post-halving cryptocurrency rise, Thielen cited past data that indicates such a rally would usually begin approximately six months later.

Putting particular mining operations in focus, Thielen said that Marathon, the biggest Bitcoin miner in the world, has amassed inventory that will probably be sold gradually after the halving to prevent a significant decline in earnings. With a continued production of 14–15 BTC per day, Marathon's current mining output of 28–30 BTC per day, post–halving, could contribute up to 133 days of additional supply to the market.

According to Thielen's analysis, if all miners follow suit, the market would witness daily sales of up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin following the halving, which might reverse the supply-demand imbalance that has been driving the recent price increase.

The amount of Bitcoin that "miners" may receive for validating transactions each day will be halved, from 900 to 450, around April 20. Given the present price of bitcoin, the business as a whole may lose almost $10 billion in income annually.

To counteract declining income, miners like CleanSpark and Marathon Digital Holdings, who compete for a fixed Bitcoin reward by utilizing lightning-fast computers to solve mathematical puzzles, have bought smaller rivals and invested in new equipment.

Digital asset expert Matthew Kimmell of CoinShares stated, "This is the last push for miners to squeeze out as much revenue as they can before their production takes a big hit."

"With revenues dropping dramatically overnight across the board, each miner's strategic response and ability to adapt could very well determine who succeeds and who fails."

CEO of Marathon, Peter Thiel, said last week that the company's break-even point for profitability following the halving would be around $46,000 per Bitcoin, assuming no significant price fluctuations in the six months that follow the event.

"Historically, the Bitcoin halving has always been followed by a longer bullish cycle. Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, told Crypto.news that "even though we might see some volatility in the short term after the halving, it will likely translate into a prolonged bull market for Bitcoin."

ETFs, according to Kan, will always play a significant role in the dynamics of the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have had the greatest rise in the ETF market's history, with a cumulative net inflow of $56.27 billion since the SEC approved them in January. Because of the quick inflow, Bitcoin has reached its all-time high so early in the bull market.

Thus, following the halving, I believe the ETF flow will mostly stay positive. Given that investors are aware of the beneficial effects that halving often has on Bitcoin's price and want to profit from it, it may even climb, he continued.